Long-range hits and goals galore: inside the Premier League’s return to chaos | Andrew Beasley

Goals in the Premier League are up. Chaos is returning. End‑to‑end football is back. The division is more open, in more ways than one.

The figures show a rise from 2.75 goals per game last season to 2.82 this year, a small average increase but one that could easily widen. The goals-per-game rate was at least 0.21 higher in the final 330 games than it was for the first 50 in four of the past five seasons. If 2026-27 has a similar upturn, it will become the second-highest scoring season in the Premier League era.

Related: The last two seasons were bad for Spurs. This is the worst it has ever been, writes Jonathan Wilson.

At this time of year, teams are usually fresher, better organised and play in a less messy way. This normally makes goals harder to score. Players' legs have not yet been tired out by the busy December schedule or by the demands of European football. You can see this in the numbers: every team is running more distance per match than they did in the 2025-26 season. Liverpool are lowest on this measure, but they still run more than any club's final total from last season.

Interactive Teams may be having to run further as more of the football is played in transition. The Premier League averaged the fewest Opta‑defined fast break (counterattack) shots of Europe’s big five leagues in 2025-26, at 1.75 per game. That has risen to 2.08, which would have been second only to the Bundesliga last season (2.26).

While the uplift is not entirely down to Xabi Alonso and Marco Rose joining English football, Chelsea (2.2 fast-break shots per game) and Bournemouth (1.6) are among the top five for this metric. With Matthias Jaissle’s Newcastle joint‑seventh (1.0), perhaps influence from German football is having a mild effect.

Another pointer towards the Premier League becoming a little wilder is the increase in shots and goals from outside the area. Brighton are an extreme example of this as they are already two goals shy of their tally of six last season. They forged a 2-0 lead against Arsenal on Saturday with goals from long-range. Lewis Dunk nominated himself for goal of the season from way outside the area at Coventry, with Yasin Ayari also scoring from beyond the 18-yard line in that match.

Something must fall to allow this rise; close-range goals have declined. The dip in goals from within the six‑yard box may be through the fall in set‑piece strikes. Nine teams have yet to score in this way, including the champions, with another two clubs having only one such goal.

Interactive: Premier League matches this season are averaging more shots from set plays than last season. The number is now 8.2 shots per game, up from 7.8. But the expected goals from these shots have fallen from 0.76 to 0.72 xG. These changes may seem small. But together, they lower the average quality of the chances teams create. As a result, fewer goals are being scored from set pieces. The rate has dropped from 0.71 goals per game to 0.56. It is unlikely that anyone other than Arsenal supporters are unhappy about this change.

The season has only just begun. These changing trends may settle down in time. They could be the result of the season beginning with more new managers than ever before. Transition in the dugout causes uncertainty on the pitch, as it is harder to know what to expect from teams being led by new men.

Few games are decided early. This is shown by the fact that 2-2 is one of the most common scorelines, happening six times. The first three of these games were played by clubs whose managers were hired in the summer. In five of the six games, either both teams took the lead at some point, or one team led twice but was equalized twice.

We have not seen many big leads thrown away. More goals are being scored, but more matches are ending in draws too. Matches won by two goals or more are becoming less common.

Teams are fighting hard, going back and forth. One team attacks, the other counters, and this makes everyone run more.

These trends could change soon and go back to last season's numbers. Fans hope the higher goal rate continues.