Team success, the ‘Bundesliga tax’ and the World Cup: Three takeaways from the 2026 Ballon d’Or

It was an awards show that, as Michael Owen admitted, could have been a phone call – as it was in 2001 when he won. A quarter-century on, a ballroom full of footballers, power brokers, a gravity-defying dancer and a handful of heckling rabble-rousers plodded through a three-hour slog of a ceremony. Aside from reminding viewers at home just how precious our free time is, what can we glean from the men’s element of the Ballon d’Or ceremony?

It’s hard to stand out in a team game As early voting for the midterms progresses in the United States, the party affiliation of a candidate carries as much weight as their name. This year, as with many this century, the panel of voters were similarly interested in team performance beyond individual accomplishments.

Related: Kane’s Ballon d’Or triumph a glorious riposte to celebrity fawning of ceremony | Barney Ronay

Not to say that Harry Kane didn’t make a strong individual case to win. The presumptive frontrunner this year, Kane also took home the honor as top men’s striker of the year roughly 45 minutes before the top prize went his way. Scoring 64 goals in 56 club matches is staggering. So, too, is his growing reputation as a world-class chance creator with the through balls he threads with increasing ease.

Kane stands out as a stat-accumulator in a waning era of meticulous systems, and his gilded peers playing for teams operating off such intricate models were largely held back. Premier League-winning Arsenal also reached the Champions League final, yet none of their players ranked higher than 15th (Declan Rice). Paris Saint-Germain won club of the year, yet their top finisher (Khvicha Kvaratskhelia) was down in sixth.

Likewise, a (relatively) poor season for a team can sink their stars’ cases. Rodri (fourth) and Erling Haaland (eighth) were immense at the World Cup this summer – more on that later – but Manchester City’s inability to overcome Arsenal seemingly dinged each star’s candidacy. A year after controversially moaning about Ousmane Dembélé pipping Vinícius Júnior to the honor, Real Madrid’s chaotic campaign sank a few otherwise intriguing candidates. The big pre-ceremony shock came when the award’s social admins posted that Jude Bellingham finished 11th. Clearly, his club form had sideswiped his World Cup brilliance.

In the end, this came down to two of this era’s great frontmen whose individual brilliance commanded attention beyond the rest of their storied clubs. Kylian Mbappé ended his campaign on Spain’s second-best team and with a fourth-place showing at the World Cup. Kane’s England outlasted France in the fever dream third-place game, but his status at the fore of the Bundesliga champions and Champions League semi-finalists Bayern likely provided that crucial last nudge.

And so, Mbappé was left in sunken posture to watch a competitive rival claim the prize he’s long coveted.

A boost to Bayern and the Bundesliga Germany’s more attacking-friendly ethos has held back many a Ballon d’Or hopeful playing for Bayern Munich and other clubs – the idea being that goals scored in Europe’s highest-scoring league count for less. Kane’s win snapped a 30-year drought for the Bundesliga, with its last honoree coming in 1996 (Matthias Sammer). Historians may append a caveat to that, as Robert Lewandowski seemed a shoo-in for the award in 2020 until the organizers canceled it due to the Covid-19 pandemic. Nevertheless, the stigma endured for another six years.

The question, as ever, was whether voters would account for the sort of “Bundesliga tax” more commonly cited when analyzing a player transfer. Would Kane’s goals for Bayern on all fronts outshine, say, Mbappé’s 43 in 47 games for Madrid?

Bayern seemed to recognize the moment, with their three other shortlisted players (Michael Olise, ninth; Luis Díaz, 24th; Dayot Upamecano, 26th) in attendance despite some certainty that they wouldn’t win. Over the past few weeks, the club’s and league’s social media accounts have been pushing Kane’s worthiness for the award, asking him countless times what it’d mean (a lot, it turns out).

In truth, it also means quite a bit for club and circuit. Since 1996, looking at the club which employed the eventual winner for most of that year, La Liga put forth 17 winners – including seven not named Lionel or Cristiano – while Serie A had five, the Premier League three, and Ligue 1 three. Messi technically claimed his eighth and final award as a member of Inter Miami, and although that was awarded for his performances with PSG and Argentina, it technically meant an MLS player won the Ballon d’Or more recently than the Bundesliga.

Vincent Kompany’s Bayern seem to be challenging those perceptions, with last year’s enthralling run to the Champions League semi-final a reminder of what the club can be at its best.

The World Cup’s role is evolving Kane’s win extends a trend of the prize going to players who aren’t a reigning World Cup winner. Since Fabio Cannavaro’s win in 2006, only Messi in 2023 has won the honor in the year corresponding with their global title, Argentina’s 2022 World Cup triumph having come in December in Qatar, after the 2022 award had bee made.

In truth, it’s a sane break from 20th-century custom by the voters. The weeks-long tournament can crystalize legacies, but it won’t overshadow the previous 11 months of work for club and country towards prizes like these.

(December 12, 2002)  Ronaldo

Brazil (1st)

(November 27, 2006)  Fabio Cannavaro

Italy (1st)

(January 10, 2010) Lionel Messi

Argentina (quarter-finalists)

(January 12, 2014)  Cristiano Ronaldo

Portugal (group)

(December 3, 2018)  Luka Modric

Croatia (2nd)

(October 30, 2023)  Lionel Messi (voting period included 2022 World Cup)

Argentina (1st)

(October 26, 2026)  Harry Kane

England (3rd)

Spain were a juggernaut en route to winning a second World Cup. But while Luis de la Fuente was a fine pick for coach of the year and Unai Simón’s stonewalling exploits secured him goalkeeper honors, Lamine Yamal (third) and Rodri were just below the true frontrunners. One suspects Lamine Yamal might have become the youngest winner had he arrived for the World Cup in better health. Then again, voters may be waiting for his game to evolve more to help clarify his case – just as Mbappé was overlooked during his time at PSG.

And yet, the right combination of player, country and World Cup run can warm the cockles of even the most cynical voter’s heart. Such was the fairytale unfolding as Argentina advanced to the final in dramatic fashion, with fans and experts remembering the unique awe Messi can inspire in the game’s thorniest moments. Had Argentina pulled off an unthinkable repeat championship instead of the putrid performance they mustered against Spain, sentimental panelists might not have been able to resist one last ballot with Messi at the top.

Instead, Messi settles for a fifth-place finish. While his previous claims to the honor speak for themselves, it’s an impressive achievement on its own merit given MLS’s lesser status in the global landscape of leagues.